Running the Horses

At present, horse racing draws more bettors, if not more money, than any other kind of gambling action.

The reason there's not really big, big money at the track is that professional gamblers usually regard the races as too inscrutable to afford one a good living.

Elections are regarded as the best bet, since public opinion not only gives you the odds, but makes the winner, too.

Nobody, the conventional gambling wisdom says, can really figure out the horses. That definitely doesn't prevent a lot of small gamblers from trying. The very irrationality of the whole affair may have a certain appeal to people, the way casino games like baccarat do, because the gambler has nothing to do but place his or her money and hope for the best.

At least one isn't competing against experts, because there can be no experts.

The closest thing to a highly skilled bettor at the races is the track handicapper, who probably doesn't bet at all. Many people try to handicap themselves, too, but nobody's better at it than the handicapper hired by the track. He or she is one of those very few who really know a lot about all the variables that go into determining which horse will win the race today.

The track handicapper is responsible for the early odds called the morning line published the day of a race. The odds at the time of the race are influenced by the handicapper's opinion plus the opinion--- as evidenced in betting dollars--- of the fans at the race.

The pari-mutuel betting system does mechanically what bookies do by hand. It alters the odds to reflect where the 'smart money' is being spent.

To take first things first, what does the handicapper consider when he or she gets ready to gibe out odds on a horse? Not everything about this can be known or told since in this, as in every other expert's game, there is a factor known variously as intuition or experience or a gut feeling, which even the person who has it and acts on it can't explain.

The horse--- this is the big one and it has lots of subcategories. First, how fast is this particular horse? This means both absolute speed--- what are this animal's best times?--- and the kind of speed.

Some horses are late finishers, coming from the back of the field at the last minute to take the lead. Others must get a fast start and hold it if they're going to win.